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The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.

“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”

Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

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Earlier this year, Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi called illegal betting a “scourge that corrupts society” and emphasised a move towards tougher enforcement.

According to Çiftçi, the rapid growth of digital payments and cryptocurrencies has transformed illegal betting into a major conduit for money laundering. 

“Casinos, junkets, cryptocurrencies and underground banking are the most critical parts of the money laundering infrastructure that fuels international organised crime,” he said at the time. “The global gambling market will reach $205 billion in 2030.”

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“We are deliberately not pursuing an aggressive expansion agenda in the early months,” he explains. “We want to prioritise integration and consolidating our existing positions first, and only look at new market entry once we are confident the operational foundations are in place.”

Some analysts have questioned whether this deal marks the beginning of an M&A spree for GiG as it looks to re-enter the B2C space.

But that isn’t the case according to Richards: “We are not signalling plans to re-enter B2C elsewhere; Africa is a distinct case: a high-growth, underpenetrated region where owning a local operator makes strategic sense in a way it may not elsewhere.”