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Two operators alone – Kalshi and Polymarket – topped the combined $1 billion mark in NFL trading activity over the first six days of Week 1, according to numerous measures this week. During the period, Kalshi recorded NFL volume of $983.4 million, according to DeFi Rate, earning the pole position by a large margin. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs thrashed the Denver Broncos 31-10 on Monday Night Football, capping the largest week for prediction markets ever.
Even before the primetime matchup in Kansas City, it became abundantly clear that the industry would shatter previous marks for weekly activity. The AFC West showdown bolstered the already robust totals. Overall, volume for the week hit a record $15.9 billion, according to Bank of America, up 16% from a week earlier.
The pure-play prediction market-operators, Polymarket and Kalshi, emerged from Week 1 as the clear winners. On one hand, Kalshi’s market share lead narrowed over its competitors, falling to 82% for the week ended 13 September, down from 86% a week earlier.
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On the question of who should be responsible for maintaining this understanding, participants favoured a shared model rather than placing the burden solely on one party.
Before betting, they accepted personal responsibility provided that information was clear.
During immersive play, however, they wanted operators to take a more active role, through mechanisms such as pop-ups and reality checks.
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Scotts Valley filed suit in response. In October 2025, Judge McFadden ruled that Interior had violated the tribe’s due process rights by rescinding the approval without giving prior notice or an opportunity to respond.
However, McFadden’s ruling left the door open for Interior to formally reconsider the underlying gaming eligibility question.
Scotts Valley has maintained that federal officials reversed course under intense political pressure from the Yocha Dehe Wintun Nation, a neighboring tribe that opposes the Vallejo casino development.